Sunday, September 14, 2008

Big Moves Are Fun

The lower your ability to pick up chips in small pots, and the faster a tournament structure is, the more neccesary a big move or two is. Also, there are periods in the tournement when small ball isn't going to be an option, and when you'll be forced to make a move anyways. Knowing this, you should make it BEFORE everyone expects it, so you can let the other people make the moves, and the counter move calling off weaker than usual.



There are many many moves. Personally I like to take a stand. I love it when someone loves to bluff all the way down, but is tight enough to fold. I know that he'll hit a pair or better with 2 unpaired cards over 50% of the time. However, so will I, and he can't just call with a pair. So I let him bluff himself down until the river. I will check raise him all in if I can get away with it on the river, otherwize I'll be the first one in and I'll move in, or I'll move in over the top if I'm in position. It should never be for more than double the pot,. I will most definately do this same sequence with a hand, and will rarely make this move. It's especially useful against a blind stealer.

There's tons of big moves, but I love making moves from the big or small blind against an aggressive opponent.
Of course there's still the standard moves that are not big which you want to do first. Before deciding to do the big moves, make sure you can't accompluish the following first:
:
Blind steal - After it folds to you in late position, you bet with the intention of stealing the blinds. Typically you want to only have to risk 3 times the big blind, to win the pot, but you sometimes need to do more like 4 for it to work. This works best when the antes are involved, as you only need to win close to 1/2 regardless of what happens after the flop for it to be a good bet. Even if it doesn't work, if your opponents just call, you will have position after the flop.
"limp steal"- When the blind steal doesn't work because players in late position limp in hoping to see a flop, you can make a larger raise. Standard amount
"small ball"- This requires more skill. I'm sure there's other words for this, but basically instead of trying to steal with a 3 times raise, you are enticing your opponent to call with a 2.5 times the big blind, or even 2 times. On the button you may even limp in. You do this because you will get your opponent in unconfortable situations where he doesn't know what to do. If your opponent has any 2 cards in the big blind, he technically should call with any 2 to a raise as small as a minimum bet. But if he has 48 and he hits an 8 on a KJ8 board and all you have is 45 of hearts, is he going to bet? is he going to call? If he check calls and you pick up a flush draw on the turn, you simply give up and check, and if you hit maybe an 8 of hearts on the river and your opponent pays you off. Ideally you want to intice them to call, and simply make a half pot sized bet on the flop and take it down more often than not.
Position play -One of the good things about the blind steal or limp steal or the "small ball" is that if it doesn't work, you have position on your opponents and can win more after the flop. So if you hit your hand, and they hit there hand, they will give off the information, and you can lose less. If they hit and you miss, you can fold without risking a bet to see where you're at. If you hit and they miss, you can either check or bet small to keep them in, or just be content with taking the pot down so they don't draw out. If you both miss, they will often check and you can still take it down. Not all players play like this, but you can note the ones that don't and outplay them after the flop.
"continuation bet" - If you make a bet with a hand like AK, or maybe even a pair of 8s or higher and you miss the flop, you should occasionally bet anyways, since it's likely your opponent also missed the flop. You should not always do this, or your opponents can start check raising you, or reraising you but do it every now and then. You have taken control of the betting before the flop, so act as if you have aces, or as if the flop hit and improved your hand. Now you might get your opponent to fold a pair of 99s when you have 88 or AK on a QT2 flop. You also will be more likely to get action later on a flop where you do hit your ace or king when your opponent maybe has jacks.
-
Here are some Bigger moves:

"resteal" - when the table is full of raises, and steals, and you don't have the opportunty to steal, you need to identify the loose players that are raising a lot and taking down the small pots and using the strategies above. Now is where you multiply there raise by about 3, and try to take it down before the flop. The thing about the resteal is you can let someone do all the stealing for you, and meanwhile develop a tight image, and then simply collect on one steal. This can be done from the big blind, the small blind, the button, or sometimes on the cutoff.
"squeeze play" - So you can't even resteal because there are people calling the raiser? GO for the squeeze play. If it goes raise call, or raise call call, you make a large reraise and take down a big pot. The reason it's effective is beause the original raiser probably isn't that strong since he's raising with a lot of hands, and the people calling probably aren't either because they know he's raising a lot. But even better, if the raiser or first caller does have a fairly strong hand, he still has to be worried about the other caller behind him.
"reresteal" this play is pretty rediculous, If you ever saw the TV final table with Scott Fischman and David "devilfish" Ulliot you saw Scott Fischman raise from under the gun, and Devilfish reraised him with 95 offsuit. It got back around to Scott Fischman, and he says "all in" with his 95 offsuit. Devilfish folds and shows, and Fischman shows his hand. A rediculous play, that is actually profitable with just about any two if your opponents will fold to the all in half the time, and the chips are right, but the risk is too great to make unless it's late in the tournament and you're gunning for the win, or you have a very good physical read on your opponents, and the chips are just right. If you think your opponents are "restealing" very often, and will fold when you move in, you can go for the "reresteal". This move should be very very rare, and usually done with a hand that you think might be the best hand, even if you're called. at 30 times the big blind, you make it 3 times the big blind, your opponent makes it 9, and you move all in.


Defending the blinds: Many moves are available from the blinds that aren't available elsewhere, the reason is after the flop you get to act first which allows check raises, and opportunities to be the first to bluff. Several moves are available here and will take advantage of someone that's always trying to pick on your big blind. this will give you more respect and allow you to see more cheap flops by checking, and occasionally people will all fold when it's in your big blind, because they're afraid to mess. All of these moves should be made with big hands, mediocre hands, and if you really need to small hands. The resteal we already covered above.


Stop and go all in. I do this with my monster hands as people expect everyone to be weak when they stop and go it seems. When I have a big hand, I will do it by calling anywhere from 1/4th to 1/5th or even 1/6th or 1/7th my stack. If I have AK, it has to be about 1/4th of my stack or less a little more still works if I can get value out of my ace or king when I hit, and a little more if I think my opponents are capable of folding maybe mid pair top kicker. When I don't have a hand, I have to believe that I will probably have 2 overcards and drawing live, and then I can do it between 1/3rd to 1/4th of my stack. Generally T9, JT or QJ and maybe 98 are decent hands to try this with as I am less likely to be dominated, but still fairly likely that I'll have overcards to the board, and overcards to small pairs, so if I get called I'm still in good shape. An interesting situation is when an opponent minraises my stack as I have the odds to call, but I think my opponents just doing it because I'm shorter stacked. I will often call the bet and if I hit just about any peice of the flop, or as much as a gutshot, I'm shipping it all in. I will generally still want to commit about 1/5th of my chips here to make this move, if I have slightly more chips, I have to hit 2 overcards, or a gutshot with an overcard, and believe this is the best chance to win chips.


Raise and go. This one I much prefer. You either minraise an opponent to appear very strong, and then you shove in on the flop like you got aces and were just trying to get a little more out of it. It especially works in a situation like the one above where your opponent is minraising you but a standard all in regardless of the flop won't work. By reminraising and then shoving, you represent a lot more strength and put the odds in the favor to make the move, so you get enough chips out of it when you win for it to work. You can also do this while making a standard raise as well, and it basically depends on your chips. It's dangerous as your opponent can move in and you usally have very good pot odds. The player must be right. The chips must also be right. I prefer it to be a standard 3 times raise, that my opponent can fold to preflop. The move on the flop will be such that it's similar to the stop and go and my move in is for about whatever the pot size is. I'm most likely to be carrying AK, AQ, or AA, but I might make this against an aggressive opponent if I feel like taking a stand.



"Uppercut" aka The stop and check raise. - I didn't know what else to call this, but this move reminds me of a boxer who lets the punches come to him, and then he dodges and then BAM one uppercut and the tides have turned.

This is for an opponent who will always bet. You have to determine how much he is going to bet in order to decide if you can pull this one off. He should be an opponent who checks a good hand bets a bad hand. It can also be made with the intention of only doing it if your opponent throws out a certain size bet, and he makes predictable betting patterns. This way, if he makes the weak bet, you can raise him, if he makes the bet that he makes when he's strong, you can fold.

This move is where you call the raise like your opponent has you on the ropes, you check and leave open what he thinks is a free shot, then he takes it, and you block his punch and you reraise and hit him with the metaphorical uppercut, and he's out of there. Like the stop and go, this has an all in version, but would be more likely to happen when you're in the situation with maybe blinds 150/300, and you have maybe 4500 in chips, and your opponent makes the standard 3 times big blind for 900 assuming you expect him to bet maybe 2/3rds or the full pot a large percentage of the time. If you expect him to bet half the pot or one third, you don't have to have as much, and can have more like 3500 or so in the above situation. Now AQ is still an excellent example of a hand you don' want to reraise with here, because if your opponent has AK, you will be pot committed if he goes over the top, and if you use the "uppercut" you have a chance to bluff him off if you both miss, and he won't have the odds to call with 2, and potentially only 1 overcard, and potentially those outs may not be live. If your opponent has a small pair high cards will scare him, especially when you check raise, and you certainly don't want to have to move in and race for all your chips by reraising. But most importantly, if he has a hand like A7, you don't want to reraise him because he'll probably fold, and you can get a lot more out of it. By just calling, you can make him think you're weak and induce him to bluff on the flop, then turn it around on him, and he says "whoa, I guess he's not weak.

The stop, and stop, and go (also called the stop checkcall and go, or stop and wait and go). - I need a nickname for this one as well, I guess for now I'll call it the "delayed uppercut" to keep with the same reference. This move is for when you have too many chips for the stop and go, but maybe enough for the "uppercut", and you expect your aopponent to continue, when he's weak, however, he's loose enough to defensively call you with a pair of 2's or AK or AQ or AJ, and maybe you have AT. You also expect him to call a check raise, but if the turn card comes you expect him to fold. This actually happens in a lot of cases. The reason is, because people automatically call a checkraise, because they don't want to admit they're wrong, and sometimes they think you're making a move. In their mind they say "he's got nothing, so they bet, and because they already took that position, they don't stop to think what the bet represents, and they instacall soo they can whine about how unlucky they are, or so they can say what a great play they made if they win the hand. But if another card peels off, the player then has to think about it, and it isn't a defensive call to protect theirego any more. This move also works if you plan the stop and go check raise, but your opponent ends up betting more than you anticipate, or if you don't have quite enough chips for the "uppercut" but a raise and go will put you in a coinflip at best. So if you have 15X the big blind preflop, you might be able to pull this move off. Call preflop, call on the flop, and push all in on the turn. Then show the bluff and say "dont mess with my big blind" in order to gain respect, and get action when you do have a hand and make this same move. Then if you hit a big hand on your big blind, you can type in "don't mess with my big blind" AGAIN and move in.




Stop, check, turn, and go - If your opponent makes a minbet from late position and you think he's weak, you can call, and check the flop and determine based on what he does if you want to push the turn. Against another opponent who will try to buy the pot preflop but will usually only bet when he has it, afterwards, you can check the flop and shove in on the turn if you have just barely too many chips for stop and go, but too good of pot odds not to call preflop, and your opponent is bet for value check to preserve stack. Where as the stop and call and go is the opposite as they are the bet to bluff check for value type of player. So you call the blind attack, with the intent of checking for information on the flop, and then moving in on the turn. especially usefull if it's maybe not quite right for a stop and go, but oipponent makes minraise, and you don't want to raise and go because he'll probably push with any two, and you don't want to check raise and go, or because your opponent only bets when he has it.



Reraise to the checkraise. -Stop and check raise only with more chips. You make sure to represent strength then they think, maybe you were on the resteal (and maybe you were) so they fire a bet. Now you move all in over the top. This you need to have too many chips for the stop and check raise and go. Maybe blinds are 150/300 and you have 11000. Now they bet 900, you make it 2700 and they call. There's maybe 5500 in the pot. They bet a weak 2000 bet which you think they will make. Now you move in for the 8300 you have in front of you. If your opponents bet the pot weak, then you need more like 13500 to really make your opponent fold some good hands. However, the advantage of this move is, if you have more like 8000, your opponent will still have to consider, that if he folds, and he goes down to 3300 in chips, he still will have plenty of play left. Now A great situation for this is when your opponents are the type to slowplay a good hand by checking, and bet when they're on a bluff or think you are weak. ESPECIALLY IF YOU KNOW WHAT THERE BETS MEAN, AND CAN PUT THEM ON A SMALL RANGE OF HANDS. If you want to do this to get a read, you can essentailly do it when you have a lot of chips and no cards, or not as many chips and good cards, but perhaps second best cards, like AQ, or AK on a flop that missed. This is a move that is great if you want to raelly go for the win later on in a tournament, or put yourself in a position to coast to the final table.

reraise check call and go - This is similar to the one above, except that you instead just call because again, the player might have an ego, and you also give him the chance to think you hit on the turn. Often you migth make this

Reraise check and go - This again is when the opponent is the opposite of the two above. Where you would want to check raise an opponent who bets weak and checks strong, you would want to fold to a bet against an opponent who bets strong checks weak. However, if he checks the flop, you can push the turn, as if you wanted to check raise the flop because you had a real hand, and as if you're afraid your opponent will draw out.

Call down to the river and then push - This play works best in a physical live game where you can spot a players tells. Mike Matusow has used this move before. He sees an opponent put his chips in a certain way, and knows that the player is weak, on the turn, the player continues and makes the same weak play. On the river he does as well, and now Mike rakes in a much larger pot. Moves like this allow Mike to be very patient and really wait for the opportunity to do very well in monstrous fields without having to have all his chips on the line called all in. Online, you would have to really have a player who is predictable who makes predictable betting patterns. Perhaps he bets real small when he's not sure if his hand is good and/or he's on a draw and wants to prevent you from raising. Even then I think you don't want to just call all the way, because the bets aren't large enough. If the player only bets the pot when he's weak it would make more sense.
So if you have 50,000 and your opponent raises 900 and you call in position now he raises 2000, then 6000 then 18000. Now you move in for 33,100, which still is not a lot considering the size of the pot.
Obviously, you need a huge stack. Online tournaments aren't usually deep enough stacked for this, except maybe early against a player who you've played against a lot before. Of course this move can be wehere you shove in on the turn, or out of position on the river, so the pot is less. If you were in the big blind, you call all the bets and move in on the river, you can then have maybe 35000 or so. At the 150/300 level, this just won't really happen often Now if opponent bets 900, then 1000, then 2000 then 4000, and bets half of the pot down, you are not going to need as many chips for these moves. If he bets 1/3rd the pot it'll be 900 then 650, then 1100, then 1800, and you can have much fewer chips, but you'll still need about 11,000 to 12,000 in chips.
minraise your opponent down with the intention of moving in- This can be done all the way down o the river, but usually only will be done on one street like you'll call the flop, minraise the turn move in on the river, or minraise the flop move in on the turn. Sometimes the minraise can gain information. If your opponent checks to you after you minraise, he probably wont call and probably is surrendering. However if he bets again, and it isn't a block bet that's small and trying to prevent you from raising, then you probably can give it up, unles it's an opponent who tends to bet a lot and you have a read on his betting pattern. If someone always minbets a draw down, or makes a 4th the pot sized bet, you can minraise him down to get more out of it when he misses, especially if you are on the same draw, but perhaps a lower flush draw, like you have 45 of hears and you know he probably has a higher draw. You want to charge him for the draw, since he will miss more often than not, but you want to build the pot up, so you can win if his flush doesn't come. Also if the flush does come and you've been doing this, he might check to you on the river, or lead out with another really small bet, and you can call if you think he might act that way with a marginal hand as well.and know he is less likely to hit.



As you get deeper stacked you can do even more advanced plays where you call, check call, check raise the turn, or check call and move on the river, or where you move on a check raise on the river. Then there's the same moves with a preflop raise if you are deeper stacked.



These are all very big moves, that require the opponent, the situation, and the chips to be right. However, pulling off one of these can often put you in excellent position that will allow you to accumulate chips.



You need to create a pot significant to your stack, and your opponents stack, and the move can't be too big of push, but it has to be large enough to matter to your opponents. When players make plays at you, they fully understand they might get played back at, but usually they expect the other person to have a hand. You're not going to wait that long. The best situation is when someone is preventing you from dominating and chopping up the table. Although you could wat and let him do most of the work for you, depending on structure and how many chips this player has, you might not be able to wait that long. Flat calling him down and moving in on the river, flat calling him to bluff turn, minraising him to move on turn, and various moves like that can all work. Always be trying to guess your opponents likelihood to call with a pair, and how often he'll hit a pair, and how big the pot is. If you know your opponent and the odds, there are situations where it's OBVIOUSLY profitable, even if it seems crazy, based on your opponent and the chips. Other situations, you can do the math and find it's actually profitable, when you didn't think it would be. However, you are looking for an obvious edge, just in case your opponent won't fold as often as you think, or has a stronger hand range than you think. Otherwize you can wait until later.



Small blind moves - You can move in with any 2 from the small blind if you or your opponent has an M of 10 or less, provided your opponents calling range is any pair, any broadway, and ace, or tighter..

With 2.5-4.5 big blinds, your best move at the small blind when folded to is to complete the limp and shove the flop regardless. against an aggressive opponent when the shorter stack between the two of you has 22 times the big blind when antes are in, you can raise 2-2.5 times the big blind, get reraised to 7.5, and move all in on the reresteal. with an 30 times the big blind, you can raise to 3, get reraised to 9 and move all in on the reresteal. Your opponent should fold a third of the time or more, and you should be 35% to win or more for it to work. If you have nearly 40 times the big blind raise to 4 times get reraised to 12, and move in.

You can do min raise and go with 10 times big blind or so, but if you're reraised all in, you can maybe dump it and wait until later and move all in.

You can limp then call a raise and do a stop and go, or you can raise and stop and go to a reraise if you are in early position. You can also limpraise and go all in if your'e just called, or limp raise all in.

Also, you can move in from the button with any hand with an M of 5 (or both opponents having M of 5) or less if your opponents calling range is the same (any pair, any broadway, any ace) (ignording siotuations when they both call). You can also reresteal from the button, middle, or early position, or even the small blind.

If you bet 1/5th your stack, or your opponents (whoevers' short, and your opponent checks, you can make a judgement call, but usually you can move all in here. Your opponent checking top pair isn't likely, especially if the flop comes 9 high. And calling an overbet isn't likely either. This move is exploitable, but should be profitable. And if they try to exploit it, you simply check behind get a freecard, hit, and they trap themselves. I like to shove all in big, and then show it, and I find it makes my small bets more effective, and my checking to induce a bluff more profitable as well.

Even though I give situations where YOU have a certain amount of big blinds, and assume that your opponents have the same or more, it also works if your opponents have that many times the big blind, and you have a lot more. I hardly ever like to have less chips if I'm making a move, and you probably shouldn't either... although sometimes I may occasionally have to. It's simple reasoning really. Even if I'm expected to gain more chips on one given move, it's not a cashgame where I can rebuy. If I consistantly go up against bigger stacks making these moves I'm going to win a lot, and then get caught once and all the chip accumulation will mean nothing. Which is why I love to let people bluff me if I have a lot more chips. I often tell them I folded a better hand than I did, to encourage them to do it again. They'll probably pull it off vs someone else too. Now I just catch them once, and it's all over and I get all my chips back that they bluffed me out of, and THEN some. Why does it matter if I fold to an all in if I was a 75% favorite, if I get my money in later, and get more out of it the next time, and this time I'm a 92% favorite?

But if I have more chips, I pull off one move, and they aren't going to have the chips to do much, and I'll be able to attack them from then on. Even if they win, again, I can pick up a hand, they can think I'm bluffing again, and I get all of my chips back and then some... I consider it like a loan where I get all of my chips back, plus interest, directly or indirectly. I'll make loose calls, raises and moves from the big blind when I don't have the pot odds, but when I have a lot of chip leverage, simply because I don't want people messing with my big blind, or coming over the top of me on a bluff. If they think I'm a gambler, they'll be afraid of me. And plus, if I keep a bad player in the game for longer, and he manages to get more chips, odds are he won't survive multiple all ins against me, and odds are, I'll be a big favorite the next time..

Usually when I make a move, I like to have enough chips where I still have the chips where I'd be able to make that move again, should the move fail. Should I get called and my opponent wins, I should still have enough chips to do that move without risking my entire stack. I should still ahve enough chips to have the flexibility to play big pot, small pot, medium pot poker, and to make al the moves I need to.



Every single move, you can potentially make blind if you know what your opponent will call with, what his range of hands is, and about how much he'll bet, and you know that it's profitable. And if the move is extremely profitable, you do not have to be very accurate in your estimations, and there is a lot more room for error. Of course, if you're using your chipstack to make players have a decision for all of there chips, with nothing they're going to give you walks in the big blind more, they're going to give you action when you have big hands more, and they're also going to give you free flops and cheap flops as they'll be less likely to want to raise you for fear you might put them in a difficult decision. Then you get a player who has jacks just call, especially if you've been playing tight with the occasional move, and then a king comes on the flop and he's scared. Meanwhile, you are on a draw and you manage to hit because your opponent is waiting to check-raise you.

Use big moves to your advantage, especially when you have a commanding chip lead in the middle stages, or you want to acquire the chip lead in the later stages to go for the win and you have most of your table outchipped. Also, when you are incapable of winning small pots, and the blinds are too big and structure too fast to catch a hand and get paid off with a monster hand, by making a big move when the timing is right, you will find you have a much greater possibility of having enough chips to be around long enough to catch a monster hand.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Under Betting the pot

In the last post, I gave some arguments for overbetting the pot. I have recently developed the idea that in a lot of situations making a big overbet will give you the information to preserve your stack, and is occasionally neccesary.



Similarly, here are some reasons for betting less than the pot:
1) I can preserve my stack in tournaments, allowing me the flexibility to take on bad beats, and still survive.
2) I can often gain more information with probe bets to find out if my opponent is likely to raise me.
3), I can give my opponent more room to make huge mistakes against me later on if they overbet the hand
4) I can keep my opponents in on hands to either bluff them out later, or to pay me off when I have a big hand
5)I can deceive my opponents into thinking I want action. If the flop is K38 all different suits the board looks pretty "dry", if I make a small bet, after my opponent decidedd to check, I can often make a timid player that has a hand like QQ or JJ fold, simply because a bet doesn't really make sense there unless I have a king, a set, or aces
6)I can annoy opponents and put them on tilt.
7) By Betting more often, I can make people think I'm more of a maniac than I really am.
8)I can put my opponents in situations where they don't know what to do, and as a result they're likely to make huge mistakes. - By making a small bet preflop followed up by a small bet on the flop, often times I can get opponents, who normally cfold, feel compelled to call with poor cards, because of the small bet. As a result, I can also get them calling on the flop, and when they hit there hand they won't know whether or not it's good. Often times, this can turn a tight aggressive opponent into a loose calling station. Lets say I have KQ and make a minraise preflop. My opponent feels like he has to call with K8s. The flop comes 723 and my opponents has the odds to call thinking he has 2 overcards. The king comes on the turn, and my opponent is used to being aggressive and playing big pots, so at this opint he assumes his king is good. He checkraises me and I call to induce another bet. He leads out again on the river, and I hit a queen, so I reraise him and he calls. I rake in a huge pot, simply because my opponent isn't accustomed to playing small pots.
9)I can make more bluffs, more often, and still be just as effective. - By betting half the pot, I only need to win 1/3 to be profitable regardless of my chances of actually winning the hand. That means a half sized pot bet on the flop and turn risks the same amount as a potsized bet on the flop, but sometimes two bets are more effective
10)Sometimes smaller bets give off more information. - I give my opponent the chance to go over the top and reraise where he might have just called. By doig so, I can let him win a few times, and then when I have a hand, lead out small again and get paid off. If he thinks my small bet is weak, I can just call and lead out small again, and continue this until the river, where I will decide if I want to move all of my chips in or not.



Making small bets, as well as bet bets is a part of the game. If you can implement the strategy of switching between small pots and big pots at the right periods of time, you can really confuse your opponents, and put them in a difficult situations. You can set up good players that look for tendancies to exploit, and you can end up taking all of their chips.
You can get opponents to call all their chips drawing dead by playing small pots and being patient and chopping away with small bets against opponents who can't fold top pair.
You can force opponents to take a stand and force them to commit a lot of chips and until then take lots of pots. By acting "out of character" you can convince the bolder players that you're bluffing so they go over the top, you can get the conservative players to think you have a hand and convince them that you

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Overbetting the pot

Occasionally I like to overbet the pot. Usually I only will do about 20% larger than the potsize, another way to say it is a 6/5ths pot bet. There are many reasons for doing this.


1) If my opponents are uncertain if there hand is good, when they have the best hand they'll fold. By overbetting the pot, I can get them to fold. If out of 100 times, I can get my opponents to fold 60 out of 100 or more, I'm making more than I'm losing with this strategy, even if I have a 0% chance of winning if I'm called or raised and have to fold.


2)Throwing in a large bet as opposed to always betting small, makes opponents second guess bets. When opopnents try to guess what bets mean, when tehy don't necesarily mean anything, you generally will have an advantage in the long run.


3) I can se opponents up - If I do a large bet and I win a pot or two, and do it again and they go over the top, then I can fold and show that the bet is weak. The next time I have a big hand, I will bet big, and they'll go over the top, and my opponents are trapped.


4) I can make my opponents pot committed easier. In the last example, my opponent saw my hand as weakness, and decided to go over the top. Going over the top of a large bet, requires more chips. In doing so, I can move in over the top, and make my opponent feel pot committed, and I can double up, when my opponent doesn't have a chance at winning the hand.


5) I can get a read on my opponent - By making an overbet, I can often rule out hands that I normally wouldn't be able to rule out.


6)I can make a more accurate decision on the turn - After my opponent ccalls an overbet, From then on, I can determine how much to bet in the future, based on the strength of my hand in comparrison to the strength of what I think my opponents holding.


7)I can set myself up for bluffs with very small bets and make my opponents think they are strong, when they are weak- When my opponents are likely to think my large bets represent weakness, they will assume that my small bets represent strength. Therefore, I can make smaller bets without much of a hand, and can win pots with small bluffs, and improve the risk/reward overall, even if I had to give up an edge when making the large bets to do so.


8) I can set my opponents up to think that my small bets are weak when they are strong - I can't accomplish both 7 and 8 at once, unless refering to 2 different players, and I know how they reactt, however if I am called down and forced to turn over a monster hand, or If I continue with my aggression and I believe my opponents think my large bets represent strength, when I do hit a big hand again, this time, I can lead out with small bets against an active note taker who looks at betting patterns and goes after weakness. Then I can let him go over the top of me, and call, and lead out on the turn, and call his raise, and either lead out small again, or check the river, and then raise him all in on the river.


9) Against novices, I can set them up for an even larger overbet when I hit a monster - Say I overbet the pot and half to fold, which I'm okay with doing as long as I take down about 60% of the pots with this bet, or more, especially if I can use the overbet to set myself up for later. Now you can type in something like "oops" and fold. The next time you're in a pot against an amature and you just flopped a set, you can often times bet 5 times the pot, or just move all in, and get action. Your opponent will likely take the bet to mean you're on tilt, and/or you/ve realized your bluffs didn't work, so you decided to bet a lot more. Pros might even think you're an amature who uses this reasoning. Now they call or move in on you, and you win a MONSTER pot.





I can get him to lay down the better hand, I can fold a stronger hand on the turn or river that normally I would feel might be good, but because I overbet, I got more information, and was able to sacve more money overall. I can also save money when my opponents suckout on me. If I have aces against a tight player, I might make it 5/4ths or 6/5ths of the pot on a K76 flop. If my opponent calls, and he isn't a tricky player other than the fact he might just call down the best hand rather than raise, I can probably put him on AK here. If I bet less, like half the pot and he calls, he could have A7 or 89. The other hands he might have if I make a small bet include QQ JJ TT 99 and 8, especially if he thinks I am going to continue to keep the pot small like I usually do. Regardless of the betsize, he could also have a set of 6s, a set of 7s, a set of kings, or potentially even 67 if he has position on me, or if he likes to see a cheap flop and I didn't make it too expensive preflop. If the turn comes a king,, if I had bet small, I would take this as evidence that he's less likely to have a king, because he just called a small bet, and didn't raise, and there's one less king in the deck that he could have. However, I would have to be very concerned. If I overbet the pot, The only hand I now have beat is 67. Put yourself in the shoes of the person who underbet the pot and bet half the pot. Do you put in more chips to make sure tyou charge 89 out of the hand? Do you check it down in case he has a king? you are most likely going to be making a mistake if you make the small bet in this situation. However, a large bet, a call against this player will mean one thing. I'm strong here. Now if the king comes on the turn and your opponent checks, you can make a decision to make a small bet on the turn and fold to a raise, and if you get the chance check behind on the river, but if your opponent bets fold. Or you can check the turn and call the river or check if you get the chance. Or you can make the play to check the turn, and fold the river. In any case, you are probably going to save more money this way, than if you had bet half the pot on the flop. Also, if a king doesn't come on the turn, you are able to bet more, or check and wait to bet on the river and/or induce a bluff. By checking the turn, you only give your opponent a chance at a 5 outer if he has just a pair of kings with a queen kicker or lower, and a 2 outer if he has AK, But if he fires out on the river, you can make a decision, and if you think there's a good chance you're beat you can just call. By checking the turn, you could likely induce your opponent to bluff, and you could also keep the pot reasonably small if your opponent happens to have a set. If your opponent checks the river, it is very unlikely that he has a big hand, unles he has a good reason to believe you will bet the river, which is unlikely, so at that point, you can assume he's worried about you having him beat, and/or is trying to induce you to bluff. Now you can fire out as big of a bet that you think he'll call, and he'l be forced to pay you off with a king. If you get dealt a bad beat on the turn or river, and are unable to recognize it, then it's fine, because if your opponent is playing poorly, and if he doesn't ahve one of the hands mentioned before, then he will lose a lot more money to you, provided when he hits he doesn't bet insanely large, and you call with a worse hand. If he overbets the pot and it is out of character for him to bluff or volentarily put a chip in the pot without a big hand, you can probably assume he has a set, and actually get away from thehand. Of course, this is a luxery that you can not say the same thing about a loose unpredictable player.

If you want to dominate tournaments, you need to occasionally overbet the pot so you have unpredictability to you. It will be effective in different situations where a small bet would not, and in the future, it will increase the effectiveness of small ball, as people aren't able to know where they're at, especially when they're out of position.
Learn to add in the occasional overbet, and use it when you can do it without risking a significant amount of your total stack, and without jepodizing a your tournament life, and you will find yourself dominating more tournaments.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Video Course Coming!

Yes, a big development for 0 to 1000 is in production.


I am going to come up with a video course on how to play poker tournaments. I have to tell you, the more I went through all of the things that are important, the more I personally learned. The project is by no means done, and will probably take awhile longer, but I want to let you know that it is under way. I certainly think that it will help a lot of people that are maybe just one tiny thing away from dominating the tournaments. I also think it will help newbies instantly become winning players.


It's a sad fact that over 90% of all players think they are better than 90% of all players. And maybe you were a month ago, but even as new money comes in, the field is constantly learning and growing. But in poker tournaments, there's various stages and times you really need to adapt. Sure, you can get your money in and try to win a coinflip, you can be tight aggressive, all of that works fine... However, surviving multiple all ins is NOT the way to give you the best chance.

One of the problems that great players face is knowing when a hand is good enough to call an all in. The perfect player who knows exactly what his opponents have and what they'll do every hand, in a slow structure need not ever call an all in, because he can win so many chips by just stealing pots where his opponents aren't strong enough to fold, and getting his money in with the best possible hand, or getting paid off big on the river when there's no cards for his opponents to hit to draw out on him. On the other hand, a player who is perfect, but in a structure where the blinds go up every hand, isn't going to have the opportunity to win chips without risking a significant portion of his stack, unless his opponents are really coorperative.



Now no one is really perfect, but perhaps a very good player in a fast structure can still fairly effortlessly successfully steal the blinds twice per rotation. Now this player is paying for the blinds, winning it back, and then winning one more steal every rotation. It's enough to gain chips, however eventually you will become short stacked in a fairly medium-fast structure. Is there a way to gauge how good on average you can expect to get your money all in before you become dangerously short stacked where you can't successfully accumulate chips? Actually yes! I have figured out how, and a fairly complex spreadsheet does all the work for you, you just have to know about how many steals per rotation you can make.



I have actually just recently developed a method that I haven't even gotten to record yet because it's so new! But it's a way to know exactly how to adapt based on your skill, and determine what the optimal point of the tournament, that you should be all in, and how big of a favorite on average you should expect to be. Blinds go up really fast online. Stealing the blinds simply isn't enough as later on in the tournament the blinds will go up fast, and soon everyone will be short stacked in comparrison to the blinds and antes. You WILL have to be all in in a tournament with a big field, even if it's very rarely, and even if it is much later in the tournament when you have much more chips. And if the structure is fast, you will have less hands to be able to wait and catch a big hand. So if someone moves all in on you, how big of a favorite do you have to be? I have developed a spreadsheet that will INSTANTLY show you how to figure out exactly when to call, and when the edge is not big enough.

Just ONE of the many video courses will show you where to get the spreadsheet for free, and what to do with it, and how to use it in combination with poker stove to know exactly what kind of edge is big enough.


Most people have no idea what it takes for players like Phil Helmuth, and Mike Matusow and Daniel Negreanu to finish deep consistantly. Phil Helmuth was all in like 3 times the entire main event. And earlier on when he was all in, the guy maybe had a 4 outer with one card to come. That takes an unbelievable ability to win a lot of small pots, avoid confrontation and accumulate chips, and avoid risks.

I'm not saying I can play at that level, or that I can teach you how to play exactly like them.

However, I can tell you some of the strategies, and techniques that they use, and explain why it's successful, and teach you how to develop a similar style, that looks at the big picture of tournaments, and explain how many top pros think about the game.

Based on the way they think and play, I have developed a blueprint. It isn't going to be something that anyone can do without some practice and natural ability, but it is going to considerably shorten the length of time it takes for you to become a great poker player, and it certainly should make players better.

If you want to know how to determine how much to bet, how to figure out exactly when pushing all in is profitable, when to flat call to trap opponents, how to play aggressive opponents, maniacs, tight players, loose players, passive players, sharks, how to represent the flop, represent draws, when to make information bets, when to make ontinuation bets, how often to raise, and what hands to play and how to apply it to any situation, all sorts of advanced small pot poker plays such as using "phantom outs" to make your opponent think you hit a draw, and disguise your real draw and get paid off when you hit. Why position is power, and when you can play "any two", flat calling raises in position, implied odds, , when to check to induce a bluff, when and how much to value bet, and how to chop away at small pots in order to accumulate a large stack

Once you have a large stack, I'll teach you different ways to play it, including all sorts of "big pot poker moves" to pick up massive amounts of chips when you are big stacked and/or want to make a move to go for the win. Also, when to shut down and make the monster folds. What hands you should always fold in certain situations, and all sorts of bluffing techniques designed to allow you to pickup some chips. I also plan on making a spreadsheet that will tell you all the moves that are available based on how many big blinds you have.


At the very least I will give you some unique and different ways to start thinking about the game, and if nothing else, it will at least give you a new perspective and reinforce some of the ideas you have learned or heard about.

In my opinion, and just about any pros opinion, you should never stop learning about the game, and there's always more to learn.

Over the last couple years, I have developed a lot of styles, ideas, and concepts. To be honest, I probably have spent almost as much time learning about the game and trying new things, and going back and testing the math of certain plays and testing the methods then actually playing. I have tested method in loose aggressive freerolls, loose passive freerolls, low stakes tight play, low stakes passive, low stakes tight aggressive, and then middle stakes. I also have used poker software and video games that simulate various styles of play, including the advanced play of Daniel Negreanu's Stacked. I'm amazed at how much just thinking about the game, or picking up one tiny thing can spark my imagination and have me think of all sorts of new ideas. I hope my videos will revolutionize the way you think about the game, and spark your imagination as well.

Stay Tuned!

Razz

I decided to try out the game of razz. I enjoyed playing HORSE tournament and I seemed to do pretty well in it, but I really wanted to try out a razz cashgame. Well I did, and it turns out it's not very hard to win. Just be observant and patient, and start with 3 low cards, unless your opponents are all showing higher cards and you're showing the lowest and have 2 lower cards in the hole, and you should be fine. In fact, you currently have the best hand in that situation. Also, you can go for an ante steal when the high card brings it in, and you have 1 low card showing and at least one other low card in the hole, and it folds around to you with no one but you left to act, or maybe a player or two that are also showing high cards left to act.

I think I probably could use a little work after the first 3 cards, but for the most part, it's pretty straight forward. Perhaps it is harder in the higher limits, since I was just learning the game I decided to try the lowest limits I could, and I will continue to do so until I continue to show winnings. I'm also patient in waiting for situation where the average pot size is large, so I would like to first successfully play when the potsize is smaller on average.

But this game certainly seems like it could be a great game to fall back on when the varience of no limit holdem tournaments and cash games is a little rough.

Learning mixed games can be a nice change of pace, and if you learn all the mixed games, you could end up doing very well in HORSE tournaments, where themore skillful players usually come out ahead, and there's a little less luck involved.

Give it a shot, who knows... you may find a new game that you love as much as holdem

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

The Challenge

This post is always on top
(Challenge started on 8/31/07)
Recently Chris "Jesus" Ferguson had a freeroll Challenge...
The Goal?
To Turn $0 into $10,000. This is something he had accomplished before, only I believe he started with nickle and dime limits or something and he had a limited bankroll. So How did he do it? He played freerolls, Once he won the freeroll he made sure to manage his money extremely well.

Here's the guidelines he used.
-Never buy into a cashgame or sitngo with more than 5% of your bankroll at stake
-Never buy into a multitable tournament with more than 2% of bankroll... However due to it being tough to play games when you only have a small amount, you are allowed to play $1 multitable tournaments.
-If at anytime in a cashgame you lose enough money so that you have more than 5% of your bankroll at risk... LEAVE IMMEDIATELY, and play lower stakes.


To view the rest of this post click here