Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Overbetting the pot

Occasionally I like to overbet the pot. Usually I only will do about 20% larger than the potsize, another way to say it is a 6/5ths pot bet. There are many reasons for doing this.


1) If my opponents are uncertain if there hand is good, when they have the best hand they'll fold. By overbetting the pot, I can get them to fold. If out of 100 times, I can get my opponents to fold 60 out of 100 or more, I'm making more than I'm losing with this strategy, even if I have a 0% chance of winning if I'm called or raised and have to fold.


2)Throwing in a large bet as opposed to always betting small, makes opponents second guess bets. When opopnents try to guess what bets mean, when tehy don't necesarily mean anything, you generally will have an advantage in the long run.


3) I can se opponents up - If I do a large bet and I win a pot or two, and do it again and they go over the top, then I can fold and show that the bet is weak. The next time I have a big hand, I will bet big, and they'll go over the top, and my opponents are trapped.


4) I can make my opponents pot committed easier. In the last example, my opponent saw my hand as weakness, and decided to go over the top. Going over the top of a large bet, requires more chips. In doing so, I can move in over the top, and make my opponent feel pot committed, and I can double up, when my opponent doesn't have a chance at winning the hand.


5) I can get a read on my opponent - By making an overbet, I can often rule out hands that I normally wouldn't be able to rule out.


6)I can make a more accurate decision on the turn - After my opponent ccalls an overbet, From then on, I can determine how much to bet in the future, based on the strength of my hand in comparrison to the strength of what I think my opponents holding.


7)I can set myself up for bluffs with very small bets and make my opponents think they are strong, when they are weak- When my opponents are likely to think my large bets represent weakness, they will assume that my small bets represent strength. Therefore, I can make smaller bets without much of a hand, and can win pots with small bluffs, and improve the risk/reward overall, even if I had to give up an edge when making the large bets to do so.


8) I can set my opponents up to think that my small bets are weak when they are strong - I can't accomplish both 7 and 8 at once, unless refering to 2 different players, and I know how they reactt, however if I am called down and forced to turn over a monster hand, or If I continue with my aggression and I believe my opponents think my large bets represent strength, when I do hit a big hand again, this time, I can lead out with small bets against an active note taker who looks at betting patterns and goes after weakness. Then I can let him go over the top of me, and call, and lead out on the turn, and call his raise, and either lead out small again, or check the river, and then raise him all in on the river.


9) Against novices, I can set them up for an even larger overbet when I hit a monster - Say I overbet the pot and half to fold, which I'm okay with doing as long as I take down about 60% of the pots with this bet, or more, especially if I can use the overbet to set myself up for later. Now you can type in something like "oops" and fold. The next time you're in a pot against an amature and you just flopped a set, you can often times bet 5 times the pot, or just move all in, and get action. Your opponent will likely take the bet to mean you're on tilt, and/or you/ve realized your bluffs didn't work, so you decided to bet a lot more. Pros might even think you're an amature who uses this reasoning. Now they call or move in on you, and you win a MONSTER pot.





I can get him to lay down the better hand, I can fold a stronger hand on the turn or river that normally I would feel might be good, but because I overbet, I got more information, and was able to sacve more money overall. I can also save money when my opponents suckout on me. If I have aces against a tight player, I might make it 5/4ths or 6/5ths of the pot on a K76 flop. If my opponent calls, and he isn't a tricky player other than the fact he might just call down the best hand rather than raise, I can probably put him on AK here. If I bet less, like half the pot and he calls, he could have A7 or 89. The other hands he might have if I make a small bet include QQ JJ TT 99 and 8, especially if he thinks I am going to continue to keep the pot small like I usually do. Regardless of the betsize, he could also have a set of 6s, a set of 7s, a set of kings, or potentially even 67 if he has position on me, or if he likes to see a cheap flop and I didn't make it too expensive preflop. If the turn comes a king,, if I had bet small, I would take this as evidence that he's less likely to have a king, because he just called a small bet, and didn't raise, and there's one less king in the deck that he could have. However, I would have to be very concerned. If I overbet the pot, The only hand I now have beat is 67. Put yourself in the shoes of the person who underbet the pot and bet half the pot. Do you put in more chips to make sure tyou charge 89 out of the hand? Do you check it down in case he has a king? you are most likely going to be making a mistake if you make the small bet in this situation. However, a large bet, a call against this player will mean one thing. I'm strong here. Now if the king comes on the turn and your opponent checks, you can make a decision to make a small bet on the turn and fold to a raise, and if you get the chance check behind on the river, but if your opponent bets fold. Or you can check the turn and call the river or check if you get the chance. Or you can make the play to check the turn, and fold the river. In any case, you are probably going to save more money this way, than if you had bet half the pot on the flop. Also, if a king doesn't come on the turn, you are able to bet more, or check and wait to bet on the river and/or induce a bluff. By checking the turn, you only give your opponent a chance at a 5 outer if he has just a pair of kings with a queen kicker or lower, and a 2 outer if he has AK, But if he fires out on the river, you can make a decision, and if you think there's a good chance you're beat you can just call. By checking the turn, you could likely induce your opponent to bluff, and you could also keep the pot reasonably small if your opponent happens to have a set. If your opponent checks the river, it is very unlikely that he has a big hand, unles he has a good reason to believe you will bet the river, which is unlikely, so at that point, you can assume he's worried about you having him beat, and/or is trying to induce you to bluff. Now you can fire out as big of a bet that you think he'll call, and he'l be forced to pay you off with a king. If you get dealt a bad beat on the turn or river, and are unable to recognize it, then it's fine, because if your opponent is playing poorly, and if he doesn't ahve one of the hands mentioned before, then he will lose a lot more money to you, provided when he hits he doesn't bet insanely large, and you call with a worse hand. If he overbets the pot and it is out of character for him to bluff or volentarily put a chip in the pot without a big hand, you can probably assume he has a set, and actually get away from thehand. Of course, this is a luxery that you can not say the same thing about a loose unpredictable player.

If you want to dominate tournaments, you need to occasionally overbet the pot so you have unpredictability to you. It will be effective in different situations where a small bet would not, and in the future, it will increase the effectiveness of small ball, as people aren't able to know where they're at, especially when they're out of position.
Learn to add in the occasional overbet, and use it when you can do it without risking a significant amount of your total stack, and without jepodizing a your tournament life, and you will find yourself dominating more tournaments.

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