running bad when it matters in tournaments

I can't tell you how many times I've been in dominant position late in tournaments only for the guy to suck out after all my money is in. It can be very frustrating at times when you play so good, but its not enough


Recently there were about 140 players left in a qualifier needing to get top 30 to qualify. I was about in 100th place but still had plenty of chips. I had been playing really tight, but I made 1 steal from the SB after a limper and one small raise and on the flop steal after it was folded to me. People were respecting my raises, but I felt like I probably had gotten a little more respect than I should and that someone was going to catch on.
I pick up KK after a limper and so I raised it the exact same amount as I did before from the SB after a limper and I got called. I knew he must have figured that I couldn't have a good hand all of those times... I had about 13000 in chips and I raised to about 3400 at 300/600 blinds. I was called from the button and the flop came 346 with 2 spades. I could have shoved all in right here and take it down, but I elected to bet small to try to extract value rather than protect my hand ... The reason being that taking down an extra 4500 probably wouldn't give me enough to make it into the top 30 without having to take a coinflip... Getting all of his chips meant I was going to have over 30k and be able to coast into the top 30 with an occasional steal and a small pot played with a big hand allowing me to get all my chips. I also couldn't see him folding AK here anyways, and if he had a weaker ace he's only going to hit on the turn 6% of the time, and if it doesn't come I'm getting all of my money in. So I bet nearly half my chips and he after thinking forever decides to call. The turn is a queen and I shove in. He calls turning over QJ! what he was doing in the hand preflop I really don't know other than he had position and I may have been stealing, but calling on the flop there is nuts. But I have no problem with him playing like that... I know in freerolls you expect this kind of thing so you can't be too suprized... But having 1/4 of my money in preflop as an 80% fav a third of my money in on the flop as an 95% fav, and the rest on the turn as an 88% favorite, the river queen sure suprized me.

I don't know in this situation if there was anythign I could have done better this tourney. The only other time I was all in is when I limp then a guy raised and someone else called in EP I raised with 9s midway through trying to represent a big hand like AA or Kk. The guy called with the EP player still left to act letting him in the hand and I knew I was beat. But I only had 1/9th of my stack in preflop so I was going to fold if I missed. But a 9T3 flop hit and the EP player lead out and so I shoved all in knowing they both were really strong and the other guy pushed over the top causing a fold and I had a set vs KK. I was If you consider that my chips were in preflop as a 20% dog, but I got 90% of them in as a 90% favorite. So you can say that overall I was about an 85% favorite with my money in here. Now the KK vs QJ hand I was an 86% fav a 95% fav and a 88% fav, so lets just say about a 90% fav based on overall what I was when I got my money in...

So 90% chance to win and an 85% to win. Of the 90% that I survive, I'm going to survive again 85%... If you could say with certainty that I would make the money from there, I had An overall chance of 76.5% chance to make the money. I can't say I've been in a better spot. I wouldn't say it was absolute certainty though... I'd say there was about a n 88% chance that if I win that hand I go on to qualify. If I get stuck at a maniac table, or if everyone left plays really conservative and I'm card dead I might have to take a chance. I also might have to play aces all in preflop at a maniac table, but I'm NOT going to have to take a coinflip unless I get really card dead at a maniac table. So given that I'm 88% to win if I win that hand I'm still 67.3% to qualify.

Previous to this tournament, since the challenge the best I've been to qualify has been about 30%. I flat called a raise with JJ and had to dump it after an AK flop and he shoved in. I played QQ to the river twice and won a pretty decent sized pot but wasn't all in. I wasn't even at very weak tables so I actually had to selectively play small pots, more like Helmuth does than Daniel Negreanu. I made a pretty good bluff firing two bullets on the flop and turn with 94. After playing really tight I opened up under the gun with 94 on a good player's BB (that was capable of folding). After being checked to on an AJ4 flop I bet and my opponent just called. J hit the turn making a third heart on the board. If my opponent had a small pair or a weak ace which was the most likely, he'd be out to even a small bet. I bet like 1/3rd of the pot on the flop and 40% of the pot on the turn, so I only needed to be right on the turn 40% of the time for it to be a good bet. I showed my bluff so I could have someone call me down when I had a set or big pair but the table broke up. Other than that I didn't make any big moves. I played position and chopped small pots but really didn't get a chance to very often. I played really rock like, limping with AK AQ and AJ and folding if it missed and there was bets. There were just a couple people betting huge on the flop. In the past I'd play small pots preflop with drawing hands, but I really didn't have that many chips to try to hit something big at that time, and there was usually only 1 or two in the pot so if I hit a pair with a flushdraw, it might not have been good, and I wouldn't have that many people in the pot to get paid off. Once I picked up the hands, I was just called down so I didn't have to be all in, but I could still commit a large enough amount of my chips for me to accumulate chips with lesser risk. When the blinds and ante got involved I was waiting for a chance for it to fold toe me so I could try a 2.5X big blind to either take it down preflop or on the flop. But that never happened, so i ended up stealing from SB with KJ and from CU with T9s both after limpers... Sure, had the QQ gotten rivered I would've lost a fairly significant amount, but had the flop come AK3 I could fire out a small bet and see where I'm at get away with the hand fairly cheap. The JJ most likely DID get cracked, but I only lost a couple big blinds because I played a small pot. Maybe my opponent had TT, but there's no reason to extract value at risk of elimination until it gets later, the blinds get significant and pot gets big and conditions get tough.

It's not that suprizing that I've only qualified once, because I've been a 20% and 30% and 25% and now about 70%... But it's certainly frustrating to have it be late in the tourney when my moneys in so good and I'm only 1 double up away from being in such good position to qualify and not winning. I guess I have to just start playing more. Hopefully when I start running good, I'll qualify, and then place deep in the money of the BIG 1k tourney. If that happens... watch out, my journey to 1K should be just around the corner.