Wednesday, August 13, 2008

According to some I'm now a "losing player" on FT

Trying the superturbo SNGs lost me a lot of money, I'm not going back to those things. I took my chance trying them out for 15 games or so, did not do well cashed a couple didn't win. But I'm still up on FT alone 250 from the $50 I started with(affiliate cash). Yet I'm playing in a daily double and from the small blind I shove in on a short stack for the third time in a row after it folds to me. He starts talking trash about my tournament record and my game. I didn't say a word to him it wasn't worth it. Ended up getting my kings busted much later in the tourney near the bubble, but it was interesting to realize that the 90 person SNGs on fulltilt for whatever reason doesn't register on the poker DB. Got some more final tables, I have several on my computer but I don't know which ones I've uploaded and which ones I haven't, I'll get around to updating them all eventually



speaking of which, I'm at a $3.3 SNG final table

One of these days I'm going to take a few shots at the $10, so we'll see if I can get on a run.

I have recently found that minraising at low Ms with high antes but relatively low blinds still works, especially as you near the bubble. I saw a player switch gears into aggressive but he would stay away from reraises. I've emulated his gear switch period only with smaller raises. It's been successful as of it's first test run. I've experimented with limping with big pairs, it allowed me to get away from an A high flop, and it allowed me to get money in with QQ vs JJ, but I probably could have accomplished that anyways. I limped and got a lot of money in the pot with AAas I was raised from the big blind, and I just called as I knew the other person in the pot would have to either push fold with his stack. He pushed, and it was a big triple up.
I do feel that limping strong has it's place, but not very much at passive tables, and only if the blind structure is deep, (and you can fold aces), or short (and you need to try to get as many chips as possible to have the leverage you need to make steals and have a chance at the thing. You have to really figure out your table if you're going to limp, and most of the time if you raise, you're going to get more money in the pot anyways. What you're looking for is wreckless play after the flop. Sure you're giving people the odds to hit with anyhand if you don't put 10% of your stack in preflop and play it right after the flop or 20% in preflop and play it how you want afterwards. However, because there's so many bad players that will go broke with JT on a jack high flop, there's more equity in trying to get players in that can hit top pair and maybe get some extra people calling. You're also looking for lots of preflop raises after limpers, or really small pot and passive play, particularly loose passive play so you can do all the betting.

I would say, don't attempt this move very often at all, even if conditions are right. It is only when you feel you NEED to make a move. Limping with aces, is about the same risk factor as a raise and go with AK, and playing aces aggressively is probably worth more anyways. However, I do feel that it is okay to raise 1/4th of your chips on a steal attempt, and if reraised, fold even though you have pot odds. The reason is, because if you do that, you can still attempt a move all in next hand, and poentially still steal the blinds, or get in a profitable situation with the blinds and antes. And if that doesn't work, you can look for a raise and a big isolation reraise move on your big blind so you have dead money in the pot and you can triple up. Or else you can try a move in, or perhaps a limp and go from the small blind. If you pull off one of these moves, you can again attempt the minraise, and repeat if you're raised. You will buy yourself a lot more hands, and give yourself a lot more potential to come away with a steal. If you get away with it, now you can look to attempt it again next rotation.
I still like shoving all in on the blinds

Update: went out in 3rd place after losing multiple all ins as a 35% dog in each. Blinds and antes put the pot at 20k and even the big stack was never really more than 100k. Guy called from BB with KQ the first time against like 85o. The 2nd time he had AK and I had T4off. Although it seems like I'm going to get knocked out the majority of the time, I had him covered the first time, and stole my way back to about even with him. Given that I lose 65% of the time, I still need to lose another 65% of the time. So out of 100, I'm going to lose the 1st hand 65 times, and of those 65 hands, lose 65%. The chance that I lose both is actually 42.25% Also, if they don't pick up a hand, which is very likely considering it's 3 handed, or if I pick up a better hand, They're going to blind to death. I made the decision to try to keep the 3rd place guy in the game by not calling when I had over 3 to 1 and J2. I did this because first of all, I'm not a crushing favorite, and losing that hand would have put me in jepordy of getting stolen from a couple times and then I would be playing for 2nd, and secondly, letting that player stay alive, would allow me to continue to steal BOTH of their blinds, every hand, until they're down to nothing, as they both battle for 2nd. That would only take about 4 steals against the 2nd place player, if he didn't move in and pick up the blinds. Even if he calls with any pair, any broadway, and any ace which would be pretty loose, even against me, because he can fold to 2nd. Winning a hand certainly doesn't guarantee him anything, however losing gaurentees that he gets nothing.
So I move in, and move in and I've got about 120k. I move in again, and from the SB I move in and I'm called with KQs. My opponent then goes up to 110k and me down to 100k. Then Mr short stack moves all in and is called and wins. Then I pick up a steal, now I've got 110k and my opponent has 100k. but then he moves in picks up the blinds. Then I'm in the small blind, and I move in, and my opponent gets AK and he again calls. I lose, and I'm out.
Now one question that is good to know is, if I had folded, and let the chipleader take control, and manage my way to 2nd, do I still have a good sht at winning? I think my best shot at winning was moving in every hand. The blinds were just rediculously high, and they were getting higher. I didn't pick up a hand, but I did move in and pick up a lot of chips, lose a big hand, then pick up a lot of chips, and then I lost the big hand again. I say I win either of those (58% of the time I will), and I win the tournament. What's better 100% of 2nd $43, or 58% of 72 and 42% of 31?)
58 times you win 71
42 times you win 31
total 5420/100=$54.2 expected
Now of the 100% of the time that I make sure I get 2nd (which is no guarentee) whatre my chances of winning? I'd say I would have to win as an underdog twice or more. We'll say 40% and 40% which is 16% overall
so
84% you win 43
16 you win 72
4764/100=47.64
so still we can see that it's better to go for the win.

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